Tuesday, 28 April 2015

US Strategic Impotence Driving Iran Détente

The deal reached in early April between Iran and major world powers represents a high point in negotiations aimed at outlining the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. Both sides have made considerable concessions, while Hassan Rouhani’s government in Tehran has moved a step closer to freeing Iran from almost all economic and financial sanctions, a key goal of his administration.

Though the full details of a comprehensive deal will not be finalized until late June and differences remain on various technical and legal dimensions of the programme, a successful settlement of the nuclear issue could open the door to a new stage in the US-Iran relationship, the effects of which have already begun to slowly reshape the region’s existing strategic order.

Considering the Obama administration’s position toward Iran throughout most of his presidency – characterized by non-engagement and a preference for regime change – the reversal of US policy since the election of Hassan Rouhani begs the question of whether Washington’s moves signal a genuine desire to overcome historical animosities and forge a new kind of relationship.

Read the full story on New Eastern Outlook

Nile Bowie is a Singapore-based political commentator and columnist for the Malaysian Reserve newspaper. He can be reached atnilebowie@gmail.com.

Monday, 6 April 2015

German Intransigence Raises Spectre for ‘Grexit’

Greece’s newly elected government, led by the leftist Syriza coalition that swept into power in January on an anti-austerity platform, finds itself in a highly unenviable position. Athens is burdened by colossal debt, imminent liquidity problems and a looming banking collapse. What is at stake for Greece now is its very ability to survive economically within the euro-zone.

The Syriza coalition emerged from various offshoots of the Greek radical left, which set itself apart from the political mainstream by taking an anti-capitalist position emphasizing wealth redistribution and class struggle, while allying itself with alter-globalization movements and trade unions. The ascension of Syriza represents the most leftward shift in European politics in decades.

Once a negligible force at the ballot box, Syriza has gradually succeeded in commanding support among the wage-earning class and the urban unemployed, who view the coalition as the only political force capable of pulling the country off the trajectory of austerity, imposed by Greece’s creditors – primarily Germany.

The new government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has captured the broad popular support of Greek society as the country faces an asymmetric struggle to negotiate a restructuring of Athens’ debts and a reversal of austerity policies attached to a previous €240 billion bailout agreement, which Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB) remain inflexibly opposed to.

Read the full story on New Eastern Outlook

Nile Bowie is a columnist with Russia Today, and a research affiliate with the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), an NGO based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.


First appeared:http://journal-neo.org/2015/04/03/german-intransigence-raises-spectre-for-grexit/

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

China’s Slowdown, Harbinger of a New Business Model?

At the opening of China’s annual parliamentary meeting last week, Premier Li Keqiang laid out Beijing’s policy agenda for the year, speaking frankly about the formidable challenges to growth facing the Chinese economy. Li referred to a myriad of systemic, institutional, and structural problems as ‘tigers in the road,’ responsible for holding up development.

Beijing subsequently unveiled this year’s GDP target at about 7 per cent, the lowest target in over 15 years. After three decades of rapid expansion, Li has referred the current period of slower, sustained economic growth as the ‘new normal’. Though the revised performance target remains robust by global comparison, the Chinese leadership is now taking measures to offset further downward pressure on the economy.

The slowdown in the world’s second largest economy is driven primarily by high debts (estimated at more than 280 per cent of GDP), an unintended consequence of the central government’s massive credit stimulus following the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009. Following the crash, investments in property and infrastructure were financed primarily by credit to compensate for lower consumer demand for Chinese exports.

Declining commodity and oil prices, lower international and domestic demand, and falling industrial production have converged, placing an increasingly heavy debt burden on provincial governments and industrial firms. China is currently experiencing a property downturn and low consumer inflation, while three consecutive years of contracting industrial output has spurred on deflationary risks.

Read the full story on New Eastern Outlook

Nile Bowie is a columnist with Russia Today, and a research affiliate with the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), an NGO based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Sunday, 8 March 2015

A Year On, MH370 Case no Closer to Being Cracked First

The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, which took off from Kuala Lumpur carrying 239 people one year ago, continues to defy conventional explanation. Despite the largest multinational search and rescue effort ever conducted, not a trace of debris from the aircraft has been found, nor has the cause of the aircraft’s erratic change of trajectory and disappearance been established. MH370 has proven to be the most baffling incident in commercial aviation history.

The Beijing-bound jetliner’s transponders were shut off without a mayday call less than an hour into the flight before veering wildly off course while flying over the South China Sea. Aviation experts claim that the aircraft’s movements were consistent with deliberate action and that calculated changes in the flight’s trajectory indicate that the plane was continually under the command of a pilot. Investigators used satellite data from the craft to chart two possible corridors along which the missing plane may have sent out its final communications.

The northern corridor extended from northern Thailand and upward toward the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan while the southern corridor stretched from the western Indonesia to the remote southern Indian Ocean. Investigators have focused their search on the southern corridor, a 60,000 square kilometer patch of the Indian Ocean some 1,800 kilometers west of Perth, Australia. Despite the use of the best available underwater detection technology, the multinational search operation has failed to produce any evidence of the aircraft crashing into the sea.

Read the full story on New Eastern Outlook

Nile Bowie is a columnist with Russia Today, and a research affiliate with the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), an NGO based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Tuesday, 3 March 2015

A year after Euro-Maidan, Ukraine coming apart at the seams

It has been a year since protestors descended on Kiev’s Independence Square calling for the ouster of President Victor Yanukovich. Though the movement consisted of both liberal pro-European elements and rightwing quasi-fascist groups, most international media chose to frame the events of Maidan in a way that misleadingly obscured the role of the latter.

While reports indicate that pro-Western intelligentsia and activists are leaving their country in droves, the situation in Ukraine today cannot be properly understood without fully appreciating the role of quasi-fascist paramilitaries and their private-sector backers, who now exert tremendous influence on the leadership in Kiev and the political climate in Ukraine more generally.

Though the crisis in Ukraine remains a domestic conflict between the majority of citizens in the west who favor ties with Brussels and those in east who seek autonomy, independence or ascension into the Russian Federation, the growing internationalization of the conflict risks an irreversible escalation.

The recent Nato exercises in the Estonian frontier town of Narva that saw a parade of military hardware laden with American flags some 300 yards from Russia’s border, prompting counter-exercises from Moscow, is indicative of the increasingly provocative measures being taken. As the neo-conservative faction in Washington essentially steers the Obama administration’s policy, the idea of a Cold War-style stand-off between Russia and Nato grows ever more plausible.

Read the full story on New Eastern Outlook

Nile Bowie is a columnist with Russia Today, and a research affiliate with the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), an NGO based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Monday, 29 December 2014

A year of disaster for Malaysian aviation

The disappearance of AirAsia Flight marks the third incident this year involving a Malaysia-affiliated airline. Why have they been struck by such bad fortune? Before vanishing from radar less than an hour into the flight, the pilot of the Singapore-bound plane contacted air traffic control to request an alternate course to avoid extreme weather conditions.

The AirAsia Flight QZ8501, an Airbus A320-200, was carrying 162 people and is now presumed to have crashed off the coast of Indonesia near Belitung Island, about halfway between Singapore and Surabaya, Indonesia’s second biggest city where the flight originated. Southeast Asia has also been experiencing severe flooding, and intense thunderstorms could have been a major contributing factor in the latest incident.

Though the AirAsia plane may have crashed as a result of severe weather, there is an eerie similarity with MH370, which disappeared in March and presumably flew for hours toward the Indian Ocean after radically changing its flight path. Both planes vanished from radar without any emergency signal or indication of distress.

During the last communication with the plane, the captain requested clearance to fly at a higher altitude to avoid clouds that would have caused heavy turbulence, which is an entirely normal action for a pilot to take. What is strange, however, is that the pilot did not attempt to relay any further information or an emergency signal to air traffic control.

Read the full story on RT.com

Nile Bowie is a columnist with Russia Today, and a research affiliate with the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), an NGO based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Monday, 22 December 2014

Why ICC prosecution won’t help improve human rights in N. Korea

If improving human rights conditions in North Korea is the real aim of the international community, putting the country’s political leadership on trial is a non-starter.

A recent vote at the UN General Assembly called for North Korea to be referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over alleged human rights abuses. Pyongyang has faced growing international pressure following the publication of a UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) report in February accusing the country of committing crimes against humanity against its own population.

The 372-page report on rights violations in North Korea primarily raises concerns over the country’s penal system, where it claims citizens have been subjected to arbitrary detention, torture, executions and deliberate starvation. Authors of the report have made resolute comparisons between Pyongyang’s alleged abuses and those of Nazi Germany.

North Korea has categorically denied the COI’s findings, claiming the report is intended to provide a moral justification for a foreign military intervention into the country under the auspices of protecting human rights – a scenario that would not be without precedent when country-specific UN special procedures have been sought in the past, such as the case of Libya.

Read the full story on RT.com

Nile Bowie is a columnist with Russia Today, and a research affiliate with the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), an NGO based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.